It's time to break down the San Francisco 49ers second home game of
the 2015 season, a Week 4 matchup against the Green Bay Packers.
The
trio of 49ers.com writers returns with four topics to preview the
matchup. Feel free to chime in with your thoughts in the comments
section of this post.
1st Down: Who deserves pre-game analysis this week?
@Joe_Fann: Reggie Bush
The
fan sentiment that the “sky is falling” in San Francisco is
understandable after back-to-back lopsided losses. Amidst the adversity
against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals, it’s also very
easy to forget that Bush is supposed to be a key cog in the 49ers
offense. After injuring his calf in the first half of Week 1 against the
Minnesota Vikings, Bush appears set to return to the field this Sunday.
We still don’t know exactly how Geep Chryst plans on using the
versatile running back, but the 49ers could certainly use a wrinkle on
offense to help keep pace with the Packers high-scoring attack.
@TylerEmerick: Bruce Ellington
When
Ellington is healthy, he has the ability to be an impact player.
Unfortunately, the second-year wideout has dealt with a host of injuries
throughout his young career. But after missing the last two weeks with
an ankle injury, Ellington is a full participant in practice this week.
If he plays this weekend, Ellington brings an entirely unique skill set
to San Francisco’s offense. He can line up anywhere on the field,
including the backfield. Just Ellington’s presence on the field keeps
opposing defenses on their toes. The more Green Bay has to account for
the better. Ellington brings that unpredictability.
@TaylorPrice: Jimmie Ward and Dontae Johnson
Per
Pro Football Focus, Randall Cobb led the NFL with 10 touchdown catches
from the slot last season. He already has four from the slot this
season, including a trio of receiving touchdowns against the Kansas City
Chiefs last week. Defending Cobb’s short-area quickness is paramount
for slot defenders like Ward (nickel) and
Tramaine Brock
(dime). In regards to Johnson, who also plays in San Francisco’s dime
personnel, Aaron Rodgers has been known to take his perimeter shots to
veteran receiver James Jones in multi-receiver sets. Johnson recorded
two of his team’s three pass breakups last week. He’ll need to be active
in defending the boundary against Jones this week.
2nd Down: The rookie I'm most interested in watching is...
@Joe_Fann: Arik Armstead
The
49ers first-round pick in 2015 will look to build on his three-tackle,
one-sack performance against the Cardinals in Week 3. With San
Francisco’s defense struggling the past few weeks, it’s conceivable that
Armstead will continue to see a bigger role against the Packers. The
former Oregon Duck played 12 snaps in Week 1, 14 in Week 2 and 18 last
Sunday. That number could eclipse 20 this weekend. The 49ers pass rush
against Rodgers will be one of the marquee storylines of the game, which
means Armstead has the chance to leave his mark and help his team get
back to .500 on the season.
@TylerEmerick: Jarryd Hayne
The
Australian appears to be entrenched as San Francisco’s punt returner,
especially after setting up the team’s lone score in Arizona with a
37-yard return deep into Cardinals territory. It was the club’s longest
punt return in two years. Hayne lost his balance after shaking off a
defender near the sideline or else he would’ve had a shot at the end
zone. It feels like it’s only a matter of time until Hayne breaks one,
and this would be the game to do it. In 2014, the Packers were one of
two teams (Washington) to allow a kickoff and punt return for a
touchdown.
@TaylorPrice: Damarious Randall
The
first-round draft pick played free safety in college, but he now plays
cornerback for the Packers. At Arizona State, Randall’s main
responsibility was to cover the wide side of the field and play
man-to-man coverage against receivers and tight ends. Fast forward to
his rookie year in the NFL, Randall’s cover skills have been utilized as
a left cornerback in Dom Capers’ 3-4 defensive scheme. Randall saw
significant playing time against the Chiefs, too. He finished the game
with three tackles and a pass breakup. According to the
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel,
Randall has not given up a reception after being thrown at six times in
75 defensive snaps. Testing the rookie’s coverage skills on the
perimeter in intermediate routes, and even on double-moves, will be
crucial for San Francisco’s chances of winning this week.
3rd Down: What will be a telling statistic in this game?
@Joe_Fann: Carlos Hyde's rushing totals
After
rushing for 168 yards against the Vikings, Hyde has a combined 94 yards
in his last two contests. Furthermore, 87 of those yards have come in
the first half. The lack of second-half production for Hyde is due in
large part to the 20-point first-half deficits the 49ers have faced in
those two games. If Hyde ends Sunday’s game against the Packers near or
over the century mark in rushing yards, that will likely mean that the
49ers were able to get off to a better start.
@TylerEmerick: Quarterback hits
Through
Week 3, the Packers have allowed the fewest quarterback hits (10) of
any team in the league. Conversely, the 49ers have hit opposing
signal-callers 11 times, but only three of them have come in the last
two weeks. Obviously that has to change on Sunday when facing Rodgers.
The reigning NFL MVP already does a terrific job of extending plays with
his footwork in the pocket, but when he isn’t pressured, he’ll pick a
defense apart. Good things will happen if San Francisco can get into the
Green Bay backfield.
@TaylorPrice: Third-down conversions
You
could use this stat any week, but it looms large in this game
especially. Green Bay’s offense ranks 12th in third-down conversions,
moving the chains 43.8 percent of the time on the money down. Limiting
big plays against a Rodgers-led defense is critical. Limiting such plays
when it’s third down is even bigger. The 49ers rank 16th in the NFL in
rush defense, allowing 98 rushing yards per game. If the unit can bottle
up Eddie Lacey on first and second downs, that will further create
pass-rushing opportunities against Rodgers on passing downs. It also
helps to have a homefield advantage where a defense can't be drawn
offsides by a hard-count from a home quarterback. Rodgers loves to use
this trick. It will be much harder to do on Sunday.
4th Down: The 49ers will improve to 2-2 if they...
@Joe_Fann: Score 30 points
As
I alluded to on “1st down,” I don’t see any way this becomes a
grind-it-out game like the 49ers played in Week 1 against the Vikings.
Rodgers and Co. can always put up points, so it’s about the defense
limiting big plays and the offense being able to answer with scores of
their own. To steal a few football clichés, that means the 49ers offense
will need to convert on third down, limit turnovers and convert
red-zone opportunities into touchdowns rather than settling for field
goals. The Packers rank fourth in the NFL in scoring at 32 points per
game. That makes 30 points for the 49ers a reasonable benchmark for the
offense to shoot for on Sunday.
@TylerEmerick: Score a touchdown on defense/special teams
The
49ers saw first hand last week how big of an impact these plays have on
games. Arizona scored two early touchdowns on defense, and
consequently, San Francisco was forced to adjust its gameplan on the
fly. Score a momentum-shifting touchdown like that and it gets the crowd
involved, lets the defense pin its ears back and allows the offense to
run the ball. That’s all a recipe for success for the 49ers. As
Eric Reid said on Wednesday, “They’re going to make plays, we have to match them.”
@TaylorPrice: Win the turnover battle
San
Francisco has won four straight games over Green Bay. In those
contests, the 49ers have won the turnover battle three times. The
Packers have turned the ball over five times compared to two from the
49ers. So what does this all mean? San Francisco can’t afford to tee the
opponent up with good field position, and even give up points on the
board, with giveaways. We’ve heard
Colin Kaepernick
talk about moving on from last week’s four-interception game. We’ll get
a sense for the quarterback’s confidence in what he displays in this
game. If the 49ers can protect the ball, make timely plays and finish
drives, they’ll be in position to pull off an upset. Of course, stealing
the ball away from Rodgers or Lacey will go a long way in shifting the
tide into the home team’s favor.
